The Fallacy of Scaling, or Why You Need Highly Knowledgeable Experts

Picture this scenario – an internal or external customer contacts a team, possibly through a Request for Proposal (RFP) or as an exercise. The customer knows that your team makes a certain product, and the customer desires to have a similar product. However, the original product is either too big or too small for the desired application. What generally happens?

A small team of engineers, along with a support team of management, financial, and business experts, convenes to define a solution that meets the customer’s desires. Since a similar product already exists, that product becomes a starting point for engineering, cost, and schedule studies. Usually, the preferred outcome is a product like the existing one but with more – more range, more seats, or more payload capacity. Occasionally the preference is for less – less range, less payload, or more likely, smaller external dimensions. The first course of action the team comes to is to take the current product and scale it to fit the new product’s specifications.

The problem then becomes how to do the scaling in a credible manner. I first realized this phenomenon when I was 6 years old, sitting in the rear seat of a four-passenger Piper Comanche. We had stopped overnight in Little Rock, Arkansas, and were sitting on the ramp with the engine idling when a North American P51D Mustang went by on a taxiway. I stared at the Mustang, my mind boggled by its sheer size. Up until that time, I had seen pictures of the legendary World War II fighter, and even had a model of one. But in my six-year old mind, I had made a basic scaling error – I took what I knew, the size of a four place single engine aircraft, and had scaled down that size for my internal picture of how big a Mustang ought to be, for it only had one seat, not four. And so, looking out the window from my vantage of a four place aircraft, and watching this behemoth roll by, caused a definite case of cognitive dissonance.

I had let one parameter guide my understanding of how big a Mustang is. A more thorough investigation would have uncovered some more pertinent parameters, such as engine horsepower (Mustang: 1490, Comanche: 250, or about 6 times the power), cruise speed (435 mph vs 180), and max gross weight (12,100 pounds vs 2900). Then I might have realized my mistake and understood that the Mustang was 50% longer and twice as tall as the Comanche, even with a similar wingspan.

Therein lies the fallacy of scaling – the scaling parameters must be categorized and prioritized, and for that you need knowledgeable experts. These are people who understand the interactions of different parameters, which ones to deprecate, and the ones that should dominate. And most importantly, what parameters really matter. If you are taking a four place aircraft and turning it into a six-place aircraft, there are lots of changes besides adding two seats. Most likely the fuselage length grows, and this upsets the balance of where the center of lift is for multiple reasons. Not only are you adding aluminum (or additional composites), but cable lengths (both electrical and mechanical) change. The outer mold line of the fuselage necessarily changes, the question becomes whether a “plug” is installed or the whole fuselage changes. These decisions have aerodynamic consequences. Think of the difference between the Beechcraft Debonair straight-tail Bonanza (four seats) and Bonanza 36 series (six seats) vs the Grumman American AA1 (two seats) and AA5 series aircraft (four seats). Both initial aircraft added two seats. The Bonanza took the route of blending the fuselage across the new length whereas the AA1 vs AA5 has a constant-width plug. Consequently, the AA5 has control problems in certain flight regimes, where the slab sides result in aerodynamic blanking of one or more tail surfaces. The Beechcraft solution was undoubtedly more expensive, but the 36 series of Bonanzas has endured in the marketplace whereas the AA series is a footnote.

So, what can you as a mass properties engineer do when faced with this very familiar scenario? We are in an irreplaceable position on any program because mass properties engineers have visibility across the breadth of a program. Use that to your advantage. Put on your systems engineering hat and look at how the various parts of your total system come together and how they interact. This is where mass properties engineers shine. We are among the few who have insight into every aspect of the product from where components are placed to how these components operate. And, because mass properties engineers have this insight, we are able to influence design and design changes, including functional and aesthetic aspects of a proposed design. Unlike most other engineering disciplines, we are not “pigeon-holed” into affecting one of a design’s parameters. We can interplay multiple factors and guide the program’s management towards arriving at a better solution than one by multiple engineers, each looking only at a subset of the available options. This is the true Unique Selling Point of Mass Properties Engineering, one that has immense value to a company employing mass properties engineers and it is one of the major reasons engineers choose to stay in mass properties.

Finally, what is the SAWE’s role in enabling an individual mass properties engineer to perform this powerful position? Look no further than the SAWE’s Mission Statement: The Society of Allied Weight Engineers is an international, professional, nonprofit organization dedicated to the promotion, practice, and innovation of the field of mass properties engineering. The SAWE executes its mission via a variety of initiatives encompassing peer reviewed papers, conferences, industry leading training, mentoring by experienced mass properties engineers, and establishing industry specific Standards and Practices. The SAWE has enabled countless mass properties engineers to better serve their companies through all the above methods of knowledge transfer, in the process creating the next generation of mass properties experts. Tying this all together, the engineers who become tomorrow’s experts will lead the innovations that power tomorrow’s products.

2021 80th International Conference – UPDATE

I regret to inform our membership that due to the pandemic your SAWE Board of Directors has decided to cancel this year’s in-person conference in Cocoa Beach, Florida. With the rise in COVID cases and the increasing travel restrictions for our attendees, our financial outlook for the conference made it unwise to proceed. While we were all looking forward to seeing each other again face to face, the current circumstances required us to make this difficult decision.

I would like to thank the Florida Space Coast Chapter for all the hard work they put into hosting this conference for us. As many of you know, this is no small task, and they had everything prepared and ready to go. I also appreciate the work of our Executive Committee who supported all aspects of the preparation. I personally have learned a lot from this experience, and we will hopefully be able to apply these lessons to the next in-person conference in Savannah, GA in May, 2022.

While I am disappointed that we will not be meeting in beautiful Cocoa Beach this year, our team is quickly assessing our options for holding another virtual conference. More details to come.

Thanks for your support of SAWE, and I look forward to meeting with you all in the near future, either virtually or in-person in Savannah.

Sincerely,

Damian Yañez
International President
Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.
damian.yanez@sawe.org

Boeing Orbital Flight Test 2 (OFT2)

The second Boeing Orbital Flight Test of The Commercial Starliner Capsule is scheduled to launch and dock with the International Space Station (ISS) in the near future. The Society of Allied Weight Engineers (SAWE) long time Corporate Partner Space Electronics (now Raptor Scientific) helped to make it possible, https://raptor-scientific.com/products/weight-and-cg-of-large-objects-and-spacecraft/. The Starliner Crew Module (CM) during a Weight and Center of Gravity test is shown at https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasakennedy/50884857527/in/photostream/lightbox/. All events are historic. Grab a piece of Space history first-hand, https://www.nasa.gov/feature/what-you-need-to-know-about-nasa-s-boeing-orbital-flight-test-2. To the International Space Station and Beyond, https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/main/index.html!

Standards and Practices: Missiles and Space Second Quarterly Meeting on Friday, June 04, 2021

Please join Jeff Cerro and Richard Manning for the second quarterly 2021 Standards and Practices Missiles & Space committee for a Zoom meeting on Friday, June 04th starting at 8 am Pacific, 11 am Eastern, 1700 Central European time. We expect the meeting to last an hour. The agenda highlights of the meeting are:

  • Setting the agenda for Missiles & Space for the SAWE International Conference in October
  • Updating the committee on the progress on the Missiles & Space Recommended Practices (RPs)
    • RP-A6, Coordinate Systems: Moving on to the Committee Draft.
    • RP A-16, Mass Properties Measurement: Figures redone, what’s next?
  • Presenting a special topic:  H2 for Sustainability — What does it mean to the M&S Mass Properties Engineering (MPE) community?

Registration in advance is required for this meeting:

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

Please note that to join the meeting, you MUST use the Zoom desktop client or mobile app. You will not be able to join using the web client.

Standards and Practices: Military Aircraft Industry Subcommittee Meeting: May 18, 2021

All are welcome to join the Standards and Practices Committee Military Aircraft Industry Subcommittee for a Zoom meeting on May 18th from 10:00 – 12:00 PM US Eastern Daylight Time. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss:

  • Preparations for the SAWE International Conference in October
  • Solicit presentations and volunteers to develop presentations for the Military Aircraft session at the International Conference
  • Short Topic – Recent Experience in Out-of-Tolerance Weighing Results of US Navy Aircraft

Registration in advance is required for this meeting:

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

Please note that to join the meeting, you MUST use the Zoom desktop client or mobile app. You will not be able to join using the web client.

Public Draft – SAWE TO-2 “Procedure for Developing and Maintaining Documents”

A proposal to revise SAWE Recommended Practice TO-2 “Procedure for Developing and Maintaining Documents” is now available for comment at the Standards and Practices Public Review site here: https://www.sawe.org/standards/public-review/

The draft review period ends on 18 April 2021.

Missiles and Space Committee Meeting Review

The Missiles and Space committee of Standards and Practices held its first meeting outside of the international conference of any recent memory. This meeting was open to all SAWE members with an interest in Missile and Space committee activities and despite the rather short notice, we were happy to end up with a very well attended session, including European attendees. There was primarily discussion of the Recommended Practices (RPs) that Missiles and Space controls: RP A-6, Coordinate Systems; RP 9 and RP 10 Weight and Balance Control and Forms for Guided Missiles; and RP-16, Mass Properties Measurement. But the main takeaway was that if you have questions, comments, inputs about any Recommended Practices or anything Standards & Practices is responsible for, an email to standards@sawe.org will get your concern forwarded to the right person.

More informative meeting minutes and charts can be found at GroupOffice in the folder projects2/Standards and Practices/IC – Missiles & Space/Other Meetings. The next quarterly Missiles and Space meeting is planned for Friday, May 21st.

Thanks again to all that attended

Preliminary Design Mass Properties Estimation Forum March 26, 2021

The SAWE is continuing its series of virtual, Zoom-based Mass Properties Forums with the fourth installment, “Preliminary Design Mass Properties Estimation”. This Forum topic was the most requested topic in a survey of SAWE membership and prior Forum attendees.

A panel of industry Subject Matter Experts will start the discussions by expounding on how they would approach deriving the initial mass properties upon presentation of an RFP, ultimately resulting in delivery of preliminary mass properties to their proposal customer. These mass properties would include Not-To-Exceed mass, a preliminary analysis of Center of Gravity bounds, and if applicable, initial estimation of Moments and Products of Inertia. Following these introductory remarks by the panel, the Forum will proceed to questions, comments, and further examples from the audience.

The Forum will be conducted on Friday March 26th, 2021, commencing at 9:00 AM MDT (11:00 AM EDT, 16:00 CET) and will run for 90 minutes.

Registration for this Forum will open on Monday, March 15th.

SAWE RP O-3 Generic Weighing Procedure for Assemblies and Modules in the Offshore Oil Industry has been published.

Weight Control of offshore installations is critical to ensure that any Assembly, Module or Topsides may be installed using the proposed method, with minimum hook-up, and that the overall design caters for the most severe operating criteria identified.  RP O-3 establishes the requirements for weighing Assemblies, Modules or a complete Topsides facility.  It presents methods for preparation before a weighing and reporting results after a weighing has been completed and establishes methods employed to determine the center of gravity from a weighing process.

I’d like to thank the Offshore committee for the hard work in getting this document ready for publishing.  A special thanks goes out to Dave Bennett for providing his leadership for this document with respect to being a major author and editor during the development process