1292. Application of Parametric Weight and Cost Estimating Relationships to Future Transport Aircraft


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M N Beltramo, M A Morris: 1292. Application of Parametric Weight and Cost Estimating Relationships to Future Transport Aircraft. 1979.



Science Applications, Inc. (SAI) has developed system level weight and cost estimating relationships (WERs and CERs) for transport aircraft under contract to NASA’Ames Research Center (NAS2-8703). These estimating relationships were developed so that production cost estimates could be made with relatively little effort, based on performance parameters which are available during the preliminary design phase. This is accomplished by a two-step process as weight is estimated based on performance parameters and cost is then estimated a function of weight. Further, because these estimates are at the system level, the planner may revise selected equations as required to reflect more accurately the effect of new technologies.
The development of the transport aircraft weight and cost estimating models as well as a similar cost estimating model for rotorcraft has been the subject of previous SAWE papers ( Nos. 1184 and 1225). In Paper No. 1184 the CERs were demonstrated using actual system weight of an existing aircraft. These models have not, however, previously been demonstrated using the planned performance parameters of aircraft still in the design phase.
This paper compiles planned performance characteristics from open sources (e.g., Aviation Week and Space Technology) and indicates how the models are applied using these characteristics to estimate the weights and costs of future aircraft. Key assumptions which must be made in order to use the models effectively are discussed in detail.


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