2086. Probabilistic Design of Advanced Composite Structure


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P M Gray: 2086. Probabilistic Design of Advanced Composite Structure. 1992.



Advanced composite technology offers potentials for sizable improvements in many areas: weight savings, maintainability, durability, and reliability. However, there are a number of inhibitors to these improvements. One of the biggest inhibitors is the imposition of traditional metallic approaches to design of composite structure. This is especially detrimental in composites because new materials technology demands new design approaches. Of particular importance are the decisions made regarding structural criteria. Significant changes cannot be implemented without careful consideration and exploration. This new approach is to implement changes on a controlled, verifiable basis. Probabilistic design is the methodology and the process to accomplish this. Its foundation is to base design criteria and objectives on reliability targets instead of arbitrary factors carried over from metallic structural history. This paper discusses the background of probabilistic design and presents the results of a side-by-side comparison to generic aircraft structure designed the ”old” way and the ”new.” Activities are also defined that need to be undertaken to evolve available approaches to probabilistic design followed by summary and recommendations.


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