3368. Risk Analysis Methods for Submarine Ship Alterations


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David Tellet: 3368. Risk Analysis Methods for Submarine Ship Alterations. 2005.



This report presents a methodology for risk modeling, analysis and management for the installation of a warfighting improvement alteration on a submarine.
In the first phase the state of the system is displayed and high level objectives and constraints identified. The second phase identified 66 risk areas or sub-topics under 11 main risk topics. Using the assumption that the study was from the viewpoint of an individual Naval Architect, 19 particular subtopics were chosen for further study. Methods of risk filtering and ranking were used to look at the subtopics; six areas were identified as the highest risk/consequence areas: Weight, Channel Depth, Displacement, Vertical Moment, Draft, and Engineering Support. Weight and Channel Depth were identified as the areas of greatest concern.
In Phase 3, policy options were examined to mitigate the risks for Weight and Depth: 1) Cancel shipalt; 2) Lengthen the boat; 3) Reduce mission capability; 4) Dredge harbors; 5) Use titanium vice steel; and 6) Use aggressive weight control. For each policy a cost estimate was developed as well as a probability density function (PDF) of mission degradation. The PDFs were developed using the fractile method and input from experts. From the PDFs, the expected values and the conditional expected values were calculated and plotted. Policy options 3 and 4 were determined to be inferior. Option 6 was chosen as the most promising.
The last phase used a multiple-objective decision tree to examine the implementation of policy Option 6. Two periods of the tree were developed and loss vectors calculated based on cost and loss of mission capability. The results indicate that early implementation of weight control will be effective in minimizing cost and capability loss, but that later implementation may not be cost effective.
The object of this study was to present a methodology to assess and manage risk. The results are based upon estimates and should not be considered representative without verification of all estimates and probability functions.


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