3821. Agile Weight Maturity

Paper

Abstract

Aircraft developmental weight growth is difficult to accurately predict through the entirety of the design process. This can be attributed in part to the difficulty in quantifying the overall maturity of the aircraft design. Aircraft structures and subsystems are often maturing at different rates, but the expected weight growth typically remains the same within each design phase and is simply reduced as time passes. Time based developmental weight growth does not take into account the varying maturity of individual systems, nor does it account for low or high use of off-the-shelf items. This will vary for every aircraft design. The rate of weight growth typically declines further into the design process as the overall design matures, but understanding weight maturity’s relationship to weight growth can allow the mass properties engineer to better project expected weight growth. Weight maturity can be simplified into five basic categories: “Actual, Calculated, Detailed Design, Preliminary Design, and Initial Estimate”. Maturity categories can be assigned to individual components in a system to help define the combined maturity of that system. Combining the different system maturities will result in a single quantifiable maturity of the whole aircraft. This methodology is directly tied to individual part maturity; therefore, overall vehicle maturity is incrementally updated (monthly/weekly) throughout the design process as even small changes in maturity occur. The result of this methodology is accurate quantification of aircraft maturity and a data driven estimate of retired remaining developmental weight growth.