3379. Mass Properties Using Statistical Techniques


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Brent Biggs: 3379. Mass Properties Using Statistical Techniques. 2005.



Over the past 15 or so years, Mass Properties analysis techniques have used the same basic philosophy for calculations. The prediction of mass through a program life cycle can be calculated by adding contingency to a basic mass calculation. As the program matures, this contingency decreases until the program is completed. The contingency schedule is based on a statistical analysis of historical data gathered from the satellite industry.
The mass growth tends to follow a standard bell curve. By applying the mean of historical mass growth, statistically there is a 50% chance being under the allocation. The single prediction does not provide insight into the uncertainty of that value. A simple method using the distribution of the historical mass growth to provide a prediction would offer that insight. This prediction, applied at the part level, is presented in statistical terms, easily understood by anyone with a technical background.


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