3686. Statistical Mass Properties Predictions for a Production Program


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Ricardo Roy: 3686. Statistical Mass Properties Predictions for a Production Program. 2017.



This paper provides a process/methodology for predicting mass properties for a production program. The ANSA/AAIA S-120A Standard (Reference $#$1) is highly recommended for developmental articles and may be too conservative for production programs. The S-120A Standard addresses mass predictions using growth as primary criteria for predicting mass. This paper eliminates growth which uses the Growth Depletion Schedules (see Table 1 for an example), and introduces mass bias (MB) which is based on the statistical differences between the predicted mass and its final Tested and Guaranteed (TAG) values over a history of vehicles.This paper is based on aerospace experiences; however, it is generic enough where it can be applied to any non-aerospace hardware line. Where any multiple lift point process is used to verify Center of Mass (CM), the Center of Mass Bias (CMB) may also be calculated and is addressed herein. This process/methodology may also be applied to Moments and Products of Inertia if a verification process is in place to quantify them.To implement this process/methodology, all that is required is a robust verification plan and a database that is current. All data will be presented in pound-mass.


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