SAWE Technical Papers

3772. Scenario-based Prediction of Lightweight Costs - an Approach across Industries

Wätzold, Florian

In: 2021 SAWE Tech Fair, pp. 38, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Virtual Conference, 2021.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound, Student Papers

3177. Delta III Cost and Weight Summary Analysis (A Process-Oriented Case Study)

Masters, Michael F.

In: 60th Annual Conference, Arlington, Texas, May 19-23, pp. 7, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Arlington, Texas, 2001.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

2321. Cost Model of Wiring Harness and Tubing Assembly

Wun, W W; Pocock, J W

In: 55th Annual Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, June 3-5, pp. 12, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia, 1996.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

2322. Artificial Intelligence and Parametric Cost Analysis

Gilliland, J J

In: 55th Annual Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, June 3-5, pp. 11, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia, 1996.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

2269. Cost and Weight Considerations for Transportation Systems

MacConochie, Ian O.

In: 54th Annual Conference, Huntsville, Alabama, May 22-24, pp. 15, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Huntsville, Alabama, 1995.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

2216. Cost and Weight Relationships for Space Flight Hardware

Hamaker, J W

In: 53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25, pp. 6, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Long Beach, California, 1994.

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2218. Non-Weight Based Cost Modeling

Meisl, C J

In: 53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25, pp. 16, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Long Beach, California, 1994.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

@inproceedings{2218,

title = {2218. Non-Weight Based Cost Modeling},

author = {C J Meisl},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2218},

year  = {1994},

date = {1994-05-01},

booktitle = {53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25},

pages = {16},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Long Beach, California},

abstract = {This paper discusses the advantages of non-weight based cost models and uses launch vehicle rocket engine cost modeling as an example. Top level parametric cost models were generated for pump-fed liquid bipropellant booster and upper stage rocket engines in the 20 Klbs to 2000 Klbs thrust class. The models cover production and full scale development costs and are based on thorough engineering analysis, not regression analysis, using data from historical rocket engines, potential engine derivatives and proposed new engine concepts. The models depend on thermodynamic cycle, propellant type, thrust level, engine complexity, engine maturity and other design parameters. The models are simple cost estimating relationships (CERs) with a transparent rationale and an accuracy of 10 to 30%, depending on the engineering expertise used in the generation of the input variables. The format of the models and the rationale behind them are given in this paper. The cost models make use of adjective and objective parameters. For the adjective inputs, metric scales are given to convert them into numerical values. The adjective inputs require good engineering understanding of rocket engine design and manufacturing principles. Several programmatic and manufacturing process improvement factors are incorporated to extend the applicability of the historical data based cost models to new reusable or expendable advanced performance and/or to low cost engine concepts. The validity and reasonableness of the cost models were successfully checked against detailed cost data of the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) and against current manufacturing and programmatic analysis results of new engines. A comparative (non-quantitative) evaluation of these new rocket engine cost models with existing weight based models such as TRANSCOST, PRICE-H predictions and a Tecolote Research Inc. originated model is also contained in the paper.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

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2219. Modeling System Architectures

Lucas, S

In: 53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25, pp. 10, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Long Beach, California, 1994.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

@inproceedings{2219,

title = {2219. Modeling System Architectures},

author = {S Lucas},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2219},

year  = {1994},

date = {1994-05-01},

booktitle = {53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25},

pages = {10},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Long Beach, California},

abstract = {Many potential systems are being studied for 21st Century implementation. Affordability is the key to survival in the aerospace industry, and major reductions in the defense budget are contributing to defense industrial base restructuring. With fewer new business opportunities, companies can maintain a competitive edge only if they are able to make strategic decisions to determine appropriate product lines to pursue for new business opportunities. It is essential to conduct architecture studies to identify viable company products for the defense market as it will exist in ten to twenty years. Market analyses can identify appropriate product lines that impact future business and contribute to company longevity. Defense technologies are rapidly being transferred to the commercial market place where cost competitiveness drives the market. Conversely, the commercial market is having an impact on technological development. Previously, defense firms had the luxury of building technologically advanced, complex, but expensive defense systems. Now it is increasingly likely that companies win contracts due to their ability to deliver cost effective systems. Accurate system architecture life cycle cost assessments are essential, with least expensive design options selected early in the design process. In early architecture study stages most model parameters are difficult to assess with any degree of fidelity. Traditional cost analysis methods are insufficient to evaluate future system architecture costs accurately. Knowledge base models are the wave of the future. With only a few high level input values specified, values for each input parameter derive from industry data. The analyst can insert company specific values where known, and store tailored knowledge bases for similar future company projects. Knowledge bases also facilitate interaction with engineers by presenting a set of input values to critique. Knowledge base models simplify the process of modeling system architectures with no unreasonable loss of accuracy.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

Close

Many potential systems are being studied for 21st Century implementation. Affordability is the key to survival in the aerospace industry, and major reductions in the defense budget are contributing to defense industrial base restructuring. With fewer new business opportunities, companies can maintain a competitive edge only if they are able to make strategic decisions to determine appropriate product lines to pursue for new business opportunities. It is essential to conduct architecture studies to identify viable company products for the defense market as it will exist in ten to twenty years. Market analyses can identify appropriate product lines that impact future business and contribute to company longevity. Defense technologies are rapidly being transferred to the commercial market place where cost competitiveness drives the market. Conversely, the commercial market is having an impact on technological development. Previously, defense firms had the luxury of building technologically advanced, complex, but expensive defense systems. Now it is increasingly likely that companies win contracts due to their ability to deliver cost effective systems. Accurate system architecture life cycle cost assessments are essential, with least expensive design options selected early in the design process. In early architecture study stages most model parameters are difficult to assess with any degree of fidelity. Traditional cost analysis methods are insufficient to evaluate future system architecture costs accurately. Knowledge base models are the wave of the future. With only a few high level input values specified, values for each input parameter derive from industry data. The analyst can insert company specific values where known, and store tailored knowledge bases for similar future company projects. Knowledge bases also facilitate interaction with engineers by presenting a set of input values to critique. Knowledge base models simplify the process of modeling system architectures with no unreasonable loss of accuracy.

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2228. Aircraft Cost Estimation Methodology and Value of a Pound Derivation for Preliminary Design Development Applications

Burns, J W

In: 53rd Annual Conference, Long Beach, California, May 23-25, pp. 44, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Long Beach, California, 1994, (L. R. 'Mike' Hackney Award).

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound, Mike Hackney Best Paper Award

2156. Cost and Weight: When More is Less, and Less is More

Webb, R L

In: 52nd Annual Conference, Biloxi, Mississippi, May 24-26, pp. 18, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Biloxi, Mississippi, 1993.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

@inproceedings{2156,

title = {2156. Cost and Weight: When More is Less, and Less is More},

author = {R L Webb},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2156},

year  = {1993},

date = {1993-05-01},

booktitle = {52nd Annual Conference, Biloxi, Mississippi, May 24-26},

pages = {18},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Biloxi, Mississippi},

abstract = {Physical characteristics associated with proposed new products are often used as a basis for estimating their cost. In the aerospace industry in particular, parametric cost analysis (as this method is commonly called) is mostly used to develop rough order of magnitude estimates of alternative new systems during the conceptual development phase of the life cycle. Mass properties (weight) in particular have traditionally demonstrated a relatively high positive correlation to cost and have been utilized in developing parametric estimates. While the correlation between weight and cost is generally recognized, it is often misunderstood. In today's cost-conscious environment, weight-based parametric cost analyses have come under criticism as a means for estimating and comparing alternative systems. The criticisms center on two primary reasons. First, the positive correlation (increasing weight increases cost) appears to negate cost reduction approaches which trade increased weight for reduced cost, such as increased margins or using less expensive materials and fabrication processes. Second, using Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) based on historical data necessarily reflects the high cost of current standard business practices. Estimating new systems using cost models based on old systems tends to perpetuate the current high cost environment in a circular trap of self fulfilling prophecies. By itself, the estimating process leaves no room for the injection of cost reducing changes, or New Ways of Doing Business (NWDB). Much of the substance of these criticisms stems from a misunderstanding of the philosophy and proper application of weight-based estimating methods. Proper evaluations of such things as weight for cost trades can only be made when the alternatives are compared on an ''apples-to-apples,'' or equal level of performance basis. Changes in materials and processes change the basis of the relationship between weight and cost. Adjustments must be made to properly account for these changes. Estimates of the cost impacts of NWDB are most credibly made when a clear, traceable path from an historically based point of departure is drawn. Historically based CERs offer such a point of departure, which, when combined with innovative estimating techniques, can provide traceable, and thus credible, estimates incorporating NWDB. This paper describes ways in which parametric techniques can account for the trading of weight for cost and the introduction of NWDB. The techniques are illustrated with example applications of weight-based CERs used in a structures material selection trade study and the use of NWDB in the manufacturing process.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

Close

Physical characteristics associated with proposed new products are often used as a basis for estimating their cost. In the aerospace industry in particular, parametric cost analysis (as this method is commonly called) is mostly used to develop rough order of magnitude estimates of alternative new systems during the conceptual development phase of the life cycle. Mass properties (weight) in particular have traditionally demonstrated a relatively high positive correlation to cost and have been utilized in developing parametric estimates. While the correlation between weight and cost is generally recognized, it is often misunderstood. In today's cost-conscious environment, weight-based parametric cost analyses have come under criticism as a means for estimating and comparing alternative systems. The criticisms center on two primary reasons. First, the positive correlation (increasing weight increases cost) appears to negate cost reduction approaches which trade increased weight for reduced cost, such as increased margins or using less expensive materials and fabrication processes. Second, using Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) based on historical data necessarily reflects the high cost of current standard business practices. Estimating new systems using cost models based on old systems tends to perpetuate the current high cost environment in a circular trap of self fulfilling prophecies. By itself, the estimating process leaves no room for the injection of cost reducing changes, or New Ways of Doing Business (NWDB). Much of the substance of these criticisms stems from a misunderstanding of the philosophy and proper application of weight-based estimating methods. Proper evaluations of such things as weight for cost trades can only be made when the alternatives are compared on an ''apples-to-apples,'' or equal level of performance basis. Changes in materials and processes change the basis of the relationship between weight and cost. Adjustments must be made to properly account for these changes. Estimates of the cost impacts of NWDB are most credibly made when a clear, traceable path from an historically based point of departure is drawn. Historically based CERs offer such a point of departure, which, when combined with innovative estimating techniques, can provide traceable, and thus credible, estimates incorporating NWDB. This paper describes ways in which parametric techniques can account for the trading of weight for cost and the introduction of NWDB. The techniques are illustrated with example applications of weight-based CERs used in a structures material selection trade study and the use of NWDB in the manufacturing process.

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2001. An Approach to Estimating the Cost Impacts of New Ways of Doing Business on the Recurring Cost Space Transportation System

Webb, R L

In: 50th Annual Conference, San Diego, California, May 20-22, pp. 24, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., San Diego, California, 1991.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

@inproceedings{2001,

title = {2001. An Approach to Estimating the Cost Impacts of New Ways of Doing Business on the Recurring Cost Space Transportation System},

author = {R L Webb},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-2001},

year  = {1991},

date = {1991-05-01},

booktitle = {50th Annual Conference, San Diego, California, May 20-22},

pages = {24},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {San Diego, California},

abstract = {Over the past several years the technical challenges associated with providing transportation to and from space have been met with ever greater efficiency. As space has become more accessible, attention has focused more and more on reducing its high cost. Proposed new space transportation systems such as the Advanced Launch System (ALS), NASP Derived Vehicle (NDV), Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO), and others, all have as a primary stated goal in some form a significant reduction in the recurring cost of providing space transportation on a routine basis. The reduced costs forecast for these new systems are generally projected to be achieved through the introduction of new technologies, different program structures and/or philosophies, or other innovations which deviate from the standard practices, or Business As Usual (BAU), currently employed in providing space transportation. In the initial concept development stages of programs such as these, it falls to the parametric cost analyst to attempt to forecast at a top level the potential magnitude of the recurring cost reductions to be achieved through the incorporation of these innovations, or ''New Ways of Doing Business'' (NWDB). The focus of this paper is to outline a methodology for estimating reductions in the recurring cost of space transportation systems resulting from the introduction of NWDB. The methodology described can be used as a means to develop a traceable, visible, and thus, credible top level estimate of the cost impacts resulting from the incorporation of specific NWDB in the operation of space transportation systems.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

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1908. Rotorcraft Structural Weight and Cost Aspects

Stepniewski, W Z

In: 48th Annual Conference, Alexandria, Virginia, May 22-24, pp. 13, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia, 1989.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

1854. The Importance of Weight in Changing a Cost Estimating Environment

Gordon, L W

In: 47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25, pp. 21, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Plymouth, Michigan, 1988.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

1855. Using Cost Weight Curves in Parametric Cost Predictions

Barrus, B

In: 47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25, pp. 58, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Plymouth, Michigan, 1988.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

1856. Cost Estimating Methods for Advanced Space Systems

Cyr, K

In: 47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25, pp. 16, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Plymouth, Michigan, 1988.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

1857. Estimating Life Cycle Cost

Horning, D

In: 47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25, pp. 53, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Plymouth, Michigan, 1988.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound

@inproceedings{1857,

title = {1857. Estimating Life Cycle Cost},

author = {D Horning},

url = {https://www.sawe.org/product/paper-1857},

year  = {1988},

date = {1988-05-01},

booktitle = {47th Annual Conference, Plymouth, Michigan, May 23-25},

pages = {53},

publisher = {Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.},

address = {Plymouth, Michigan},

abstract = {Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is becoming an increasingly important element in the development and selection of aircraft programs. It is used by both industry and the customers to evaluate and select between alternatives. It is also used as a primary selection criteria for trade analysis since it is the only factor that combines all other elements of the program with a single value. Primary significance occurs between the application of resources in the aquisition phases and the resultant cost of operation over the life of the program. The models used to estimate the LCC must provide reasonable costs in which there is considerable confidence by both the contractor and the customer. It must be developed at a level which can provide significance between alternate configurations, systems and equipments and operational modes. LCC as presented in this paper is developed parametrically using hours and material dollars as independant variables and cost driving configuration and program factors as independant variables. These variables are incorporated into cost estimating relationships (CERs) using statistical multiple regression analysis. the CERs take the form of HOURS = C * V1^E1 * V2^E2 * V3^E3 * V4^E4 where V is the independant varible and E is the exponent. As will be seen, size is a predominant variable when considering a broad spectrum of aircraft types. Weight consistently provides the highest correlation coefficients as a proxy for size and is used throughout the model. The group level weight statement is generally used. With the increasing use of advancedmaterials, with their reduced weight, it must be remembered that the historical aircraft used in the databases are primarily metalic and therfore, since size (weight proxy) is a predominant variable the composite weights must be translated to the equivalent metalic weight. In developing LCC the interaction between the weight engineer and LCC analyst is critical. Both must totally understand the configuration and the LCC analyst must completely understand the weight statement since it tends to provide much of the configuration definition. Many of the elements of LCC must be adjusted for advanced materials and technologies and program peculiarities. These adjustments come from consultation with weight engineers and other technical personnel and require a close and continuing interface with them. The LCC estimates for future programs can be no better than the judgments related to weights and other advanced requirements. The LCC is continually reviewed and refined throughout the developement process, as is the configuration and the weight.},

keywords = {29. Weight Value-Of-Pound},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {inproceedings}

}

Close

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is becoming an increasingly important element in the development and selection of aircraft programs. It is used by both industry and the customers to evaluate and select between alternatives. It is also used as a primary selection criteria for trade analysis since it is the only factor that combines all other elements of the program with a single value. Primary significance occurs between the application of resources in the aquisition phases and the resultant cost of operation over the life of the program. The models used to estimate the LCC must provide reasonable costs in which there is considerable confidence by both the contractor and the customer. It must be developed at a level which can provide significance between alternate configurations, systems and equipments and operational modes. LCC as presented in this paper is developed parametrically using hours and material dollars as independant variables and cost driving configuration and program factors as independant variables. These variables are incorporated into cost estimating relationships (CERs) using statistical multiple regression analysis. the CERs take the form of HOURS = C * V1^E1 * V2^E2 * V3^E3 * V4^E4 where V is the independant varible and E is the exponent. As will be seen, size is a predominant variable when considering a broad spectrum of aircraft types. Weight consistently provides the highest correlation coefficients as a proxy for size and is used throughout the model. The group level weight statement is generally used. With the increasing use of advancedmaterials, with their reduced weight, it must be remembered that the historical aircraft used in the databases are primarily metalic and therfore, since size (weight proxy) is a predominant variable the composite weights must be translated to the equivalent metalic weight. In developing LCC the interaction between the weight engineer and LCC analyst is critical. Both must totally understand the configuration and the LCC analyst must completely understand the weight statement since it tends to provide much of the configuration definition. Many of the elements of LCC must be adjusted for advanced materials and technologies and program peculiarities. These adjustments come from consultation with weight engineers and other technical personnel and require a close and continuing interface with them. The LCC estimates for future programs can be no better than the judgments related to weights and other advanced requirements. The LCC is continually reviewed and refined throughout the developement process, as is the configuration and the weight.

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1785. Aircraft Economics as a Constraint in the Design and Manufacturing of Commercial Aircraft

Trelease, R H

In: 46th Annual Conference, Seattle, Washington, May 18-20, pp. 35, Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc., Seattle, Washington, 1987.

Abstract | Buy/Download | BibTeX | Tags: 29. Weight Value-Of-Pound