<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Boze, William</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Heaney, Elizabeth</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3493. An Expanded Study of SAWE Paper 3468 - Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk in Vehicle Mass Properties Throughout the Design Development Phase</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">69th Annual Conference, Virginia Beach, Virginia</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17. Weight Engineering - Procedures</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">21. Weight Engineering - Statistical Studies</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">24. Weight Engineering - System Design</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">05/2010</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://www.sawe.org/store/product_info.php?products_id=31747</style></url></web-urls></urls><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Society of Allied Weight Engineers, Inc.</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Virginia Beach, Virginia</style></pub-location><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">10</style></pages><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SAWE Paper No. 3468 (Boze &amp; Hester, 2009) demonstrated 
that uncertainty and risk can be quantified by coupling a 
Monte Carlo simulation using Microsoft® Excel, mass 
properties data, a work breakdown structure, uncertainty 
categories, and derived probability distributions. The risk can 
be assessed by evaluating the probability of occurrence, the 
standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation resulting 
from randomly varying the mass properties variable within an 
uncertainty category’s probability distribution. 
 
The original paper demonstrated this approach using data 
collected over an 18 month period on an existing ship 
acquisition program.  The purpose of this paper is to broaden 
the range of mass properties data used in the same simulation 
model to a five year design acquisition life cycle in order to 
gain increased insight into the use of this method.  New 
observations will be drawn as to the required number of 
simulation runs, the various measures of risk, affects on risk of 
physical platform changes to satisfy performance requirement 
changes, as well as disclosing improved graphic methods for 
displaying some risk data. 
</style></abstract><custom1><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Non-Member Price: $10.00. Members may download this paper for free. &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sawe.org/DMS&quot;&gt;Click here&lt;/a&gt;. (Login Required. See SAWE &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.sawe.org/faq&quot;&gt;Frequently Asked Questions&lt;/a&gt;.)</style></custom1></record></records></xml>
